If money spent on an electoral campaign is an indicator of its importance, then the Democratic Party primary race in Michigan could be a watershed moment in US politics – a battle for the soul of a political formation still reeling from its defeat against Donald Trump.

More than $60 million of outside contributions, most of it from the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC, have been poured in to support four-term congresswoman Haley Stevens to ensure that she beats Abdul El Sayed, a health professional aligned with the progressive wing of the party.

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Analysts say the results will show whether a current leftist surge among Democrats can move beyond party safe seats and win in battlegrounds with national consequences – or whether Michigan’s Democratic establishment can still hold the line.

Abdul El Sayed, a former Wayne County health director backed by leftist leaders Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has cast himself as a working-class fighter willing to confront corporations, party leaders and increasingly unpopular pro-Israel donors.

El Sayed didn’t shy away from calling Israel’s killing of more than 70,000 Palestinians in Gaza a genocide, in line with the assessment of several rights groups. He consequently calls for the US to cut off military aid to what he describes as a “rogue state”.

Largest AIPAC investment for a single race

Haley Stevens, a four-term lawmaker from the Detroit suburbs, has built her campaign around experience, manufacturing and electability.

She is supported by establishment figures from Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. And she benefited from around $30 million of support from AIPAC, the largest investment of the pro-Israel group in a single congressional primary, according to the AP news agency.

The winner will face former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in November for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters, a race central to the party’s difficult effort to win control of the Senate.

Democrats must defend Michigan while gaining four Republican-held seats to control the upper chamber, making the primary more than an ideological exercise in a state that has swung between the two parties in recent national elections.

After spending much of Sunday pursuing some of the same Democratic constituencies, El Sayed and Stevens took different paths across Michigan for the final full day of the primary.

For El Sayed, that meant leaning into a volunteer operation his campaign says has grown to 12,000 people statewide. Stevens is relying on the broader institutional support she has accumulated across the state, including endorsements from many of Michigan’s most prominent Democratic officials, such as Senator Gary Peters and Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

El Sayed remained in Detroit, trying to turn enthusiasm in the state’s largest city into votes. Monday evening, he closed his campaign with a voter mobilisation event in Detroit, alongside other candidates running for Congress and state office. 

Stevens’ Monday included a stop at a soul food restaurant and bakery in Muskegon Heights, where she addressed just over 20 people and positioned herself as the only candidate who can win against Republican Mike Rogers in November.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP)