Yet for Heisbourg, the deeper story extends beyond the Gulf. He sees current developments as evidence of a broader transformation in the international order: the gradual retreat of the United States from its post-1945 role as the unquestioned guarantor of Western security, the emergence of Europe as a more autonomous strategic actor, and the growing mismatch between American ambitions and American leverage.

Across issues ranging from the Strait of Hormuz to Ukraine and NATO, Heisbourg repeatedly returns to a common theme: power is becoming more fragmented, alliances more transactional, and security increasingly dependent on regional actors rather than a dominant hegemon. While he avoids dramatic predictions, his analysis suggests that Europe is entering a period in which strategic self-reliance is no longer an aspiration but a necessity.

He ultimately portrays not a temporary disruption caused by one political figure, but a structural reordering of international relations whose consequences will extend well beyond Donald Trump’s presidency.