Exercise “Baltops”, with 20 ships, roughly 6,000 troops, and 16 countries taking part is usually one of the most significant NATO exercises of the year, and the oldest it started in 1972. 

There are anti- submarine warfare drills, amphibious landings, and maritime drone ops, but it’s a notably scaled down exercise this year, with half the number of ships there usually are. The US drawdown is a big factor, almost half of its deployed warships have been in the Persian Gulf. Military analysts say it’s also compounded by Washington’s changing priorities and current worldview, which has shifted away from the European arena. Add to that President Trump’s consistent criticism and social media screeds AGAINST NATO allies for not immediately assisting in his war against Iran, and for their objection to Trump’s idea of annexing Greenland. 

While NATO is working on deterrence against a possible threat from Moscow, Russia is wrapping up its St Peterburg economic forum, and Kremlin officials have been talking vaguely of a possible deal or “Memorandum of understanding” to build an underwater tunnel linking Russia to the US under the Baring Sea. 

With so many developments to take in, it’s a good time to get an overview from a seasoned political thinker who’s been in the Arena. 

Toomas Hendrik Ilves served as Estonian President for a decade between 2006 and 2016.