Oil markets certainly believe. They’re again down as the Strait of Hormuz gets set to reopen. But… it’s only a 60-day memorandum of understanding and while Gulf neighbors will cheer the lifting of the blockade on what’s the world’s biggest maritime choke point for oil and gas, we’ll take a second look at the agreement brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, most notably, including in the deal a cessation of fighting in Lebanon. What happens if Israel or Hezbollah don’t like the way negotiations unfold? Would Washington and Tehran be able to rein them in? How does the U-S president’s plan compare with the 2015 U-N nuclear agreement that he constantly belittles? Are we headed for closure or a whole new level of uncertainty?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Juliette Brown, Charles Wente.